STUDY: Characteristics of Initial Prescription Episodes and Likelihood of Long-Term Opioid Use — United States, 2006–2015

View the Study:  Characteristics of Initial Prescription Episodes and Likelihood of Long-Term Opioid Use — United States, 2006–2015

Based on the CDC Guideline for Prescribing Opioids for Chronic Pain, literature supporting long-term opioid therapy for pain is limited; research suggests an increased risk for harms with long-term opioid use. Early opioid prescribing patterns for opioid-naïve patients have been found to be associated with the likelihood of long-term use.

The likelihood of chronic opioid use increased with each additional day of medication supplied starting with the third day, with the sharpest increases in chronic opioid use observed after the fifth and thirty-first day on therapy, a second prescription or refill, 700 morphine milligram equivalents cumulative dose, and an initial 10- or 30-day supply. The highest probability of continued opioid use at 1 and 3 years was observed among patients who started on a long-acting opioid followed by patients who started on tramadol.

Awareness among prescribers, pharmacists, and persons managing pharmacy benefits that authorization of a second opioid prescription doubles the risk for opioid use 1 year later might deter overprescribing of opioids. Knowledge that the risks for chronic opioid use increase with each additional day supplied might help clinicians evaluate their initial opioid prescribing decisions and potentially reduce the risk for long-term opioid use. Discussions with patients about the long-term use of opioids to manage pain should occur early in the opioid prescribing process.